Ung dung cong thuc Kelly trong viec phan bo von 20 trieu tai Nohuwin



Trong gioi dau tu chuyen nghiep, cong thuc Kelly duoc xem la "chen thanh" de toi uu hoa ty le dat cuoc, tranh viec mat sach von. Tai https://nohuwin.to/.com, ban co the ap dung cong thuc nay de quan ly goi "X3 Nap Dau Hup 20 Trieu" mot cach khoa hoc nhat.



1. Cong thuc Kelly la gi?



Cong thuc Kelly tinh toan so tien toi uu ban nen dat vao mot van cuoc dua tren xac suat thang va ty le tra thuong (Odds). Cong thuc la:



$f^* = \frac{bp - q}{b}$



Trong do:



$f^*$ la phan tram von nen cuoc.



$b$ la ty le an tien (Odds - 1).



$p$ la xac suat thang.



$q$ la xac suat thua ($1-p$).



2. Vi du ap dung tai sanh The thao Nohuwin



Neu ban du doan mot keo tai Nohuwin co xac suat thang la 60% ($p=0.6$), Odds la 2.0 ($b=1.0$). Ap dung cong thuc:



$f^* = \frac{1 \times 0.6 - 0.4}{1} = 0.2$



Dieu nay co nghia la ban nen cuoc 20% tong so von hien co vao keo nay.



3. Tai sao cong thuc Kelly lai la "vu khi" tai Nohuwin?



No giup ban khong bao gio tat tay vao mot keo cuoc, dong thoi toi da hoa loi nhuan khi ban co loi the. Voi so von 20 trieu tai Nohuwin, viec ap dung Kelly giup ban tranh duoc su sut giam von manh (drawdown) va tang truong tai khoan mot cach luy ke on dinh. Day la cach lam viec cua cac tay choi "ca map" tren thi truong.



Phone: 0938475621



Dia chi: 128 Duong so 7, Phuong Binh Tri Dong B, Quan Binh Tan, Ho Chi Minh, Viet Nam



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